both parties have a tortured emotional lelationship with polling. why do we continue to listen? more importantly, what are the polls actually telling us? joining us is nate silver, author of "the signal and the noise: why so many predictions fail." maya wiley, profession sor for the university school of law and dave moore, author of opinion makers. a senior fellow at the institute of new hampshire and an editor of gallup where her worked for 15 years. good to have you here. nate, this is a quote from your book, about prediction in a broad sense. interesting stuff about how we use data to make predictions and how we, as we get more an more, how we identify what we need. there's more and more polls and they drive me nuts. not only does it lose the signal, it ak sen waits the noise. if a new poll comes out with a democrat with a lead -- we saw it in an arizona poll. president obama winning arizona. >> it was a big story, obama was up two in arizona, it's an unlikely result given where the election is at right now. a good pollster will have the outlying poll, occasionally. it makes